For months, XRP investors have been hoping for swift approval of Ripple Spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Although chances looked promising due to the recent regulatory shift in the United States, decisions on several XRP ETF applications have been postponed again. To make matters worse, BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — signaled it currently has no interest in an XRP product. Since BlackRock already operates the most successful index funds in both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF markets, expectations for Ripple ETFs now seem more limited.

The incumbent giant may be intentionally leaving the stage open for smaller competitors to test the waters, waiting to see if traditional investors show real demand for XRP. Still, the list of applicants is long: Grayscale, ProShares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, and 21Shares are all pursuing Spot ETFs for Ripple. What should encourage investors further is that XRP Futures ETFs reached $1 billion in open interest just three months after launching on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) — a historic record.

This impressive pace has reignited speculation that Ripple Spot ETF demand might be underestimated. “There are already futures-based XRP ETFs worth over $800 million. I believe demand for XRP Spot ETFs is being underestimated,” noted Nate Geraci of NovaDius Wealth Management.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, who previously cooled excessive expectations among Ripple enthusiasts, felt compelled to clarify: “We never said there was no demand.” Instead, he and his colleague James Seyffart used a phrase to describe how altcoin ETFs tend to develop: “The further you move away from BTC, the less capital there will be.”

Ripple Realism vs. Utopian XRP Forecasts

With a market capitalization of $178 billion, XRP is worth less than one-tenth of all circulating Bitcoin. This means Ripple could benefit from far smaller net inflows compared to the crypto benchmark. Since January, roughly $54 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and others — one of the key drivers of BTC’s price, alongside corporate purchases from Strategy and Metaplanet.

Applied to XRP, just $4.3 billion in fresh Wall Street capital flowing into Ripple Spot ETFs could have a comparable effect. With SEC approval odds for XRP index funds in 2025 at 87 percent, a renewed Ripple rally in Q4 is far from unrealistic.

Ripple Realism vs. Utopian XRP Forecasts
Ripple ETF approval probability in 2025 | Source: Polymarket

Financial analysts also highlight that Ripple could benefit from the broader European trend toward diversified crypto investment products. According to a recent report, interest in regulated digital asset funds has risen sharply, as institutional investors look for exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. In this context, approval of an XRP Spot ETF in the U.S. could act as a catalyst for similar products in Europe, further expanding Ripple’s global liquidity base.

This figure aligns with a January JPMorgan report, which projected Ripple could attract “$4 to $8 billion in new capital” in its first ETF trading year.